Chapter 1: Understanding Rare Earth Elements

The power of rare earth elements is becoming increasingly significant in today's world. Kapena and Tobias exchanged glances in disbelief during their history lesson. Just before the Christmas break in their final year of middle school, they were introduced to the intense power struggles surrounding their Pacific island home. Their teacher unveiled a world map, illustrating how the balance of power was shifting—largely due to rare earth elements located deep beneath the ocean.

In the early 2020s, terms like yttrium, neodymium, and terbium barely registered in public discourse. The focus was predominantly on lithium and cobalt, the key players in the emerging energy revolution. People understood that copper was essential for renewable electricity, while lithium was necessary for large-scale battery storage. Few recognized the critical role of cobalt in electric vehicle batteries. Aside from occasional articles on erbium and gadolinium, discussions about rare earth elements were largely confined to government officials, academics, and industry experts.

Fast forward to the 2030s, and the landscape has changed dramatically. Neodymium, crucial for wind turbine magnets, and other related terms have become common in marketing, symbolizing attraction and power. Dysprosium, another rare earth element, when used in nanofiber form, significantly enhances the strength of alloys, leading marketers to associate it with vigor and resilience.

Despite widespread awareness of these unique metals, their demand is unquenchable. Essential for the advancement of new energy technologies, the supply remains limited. Although rare earth elements are found globally, only a handful of economically viable land-based deposits exist, often accompanied by ecological and political challenges.

Consequently, the search for rare earth sources has increasingly turned to the depths of international waters. The International Seabed Authority’s Mining Code has devolved into an unenforceable agreement, allowing entities with the means to pursue deep-sea mining to proceed without restriction.

Even as cobalt yields from ocean seamounts have proven fruitful and substantial copper deposits have been discovered in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the race for rare earth elements has intensified. The urgency for these minerals, pivotal for the modern energy and technology landscape, is fueling fierce competition.

If coal powered the British Empire and oil sustained Pax Americana, those who control the essential minerals of the green revolution will dictate the course of the 21st Century. The answer may lie within the abyssal plains of the ocean floor.

For Kapena and Tobias, weekends were filled with joy—sports with friends on Saturday mornings, church with family on Sundays, and afternoons spent fishing, biking, and exploring. However, one Saturday after the history lesson on power dynamics, they noticed an unusual flurry of activity at a nearby ambassador's residence, with people departing for the airport and trucks being loaded.

Later that day, they visited the wharf and observed unfamiliar military ships flying different flags than usual.

Since the late 20th century, China has dominated the global rare earth supply. Despite long-term contracts and consistent supply, Western stakeholders were growing anxious over China's territorial ambitions, particularly regarding the nine-dash line and the militarization of the Paracel and Spratly Islands—a contemporary reflection of the age-old conflict between rule-of-law and rule-by-law systems.

Now, in the 2040s, the American discovery and development of significant rare earth deposits in the South-West Sub-Basin of the South China Sea have altered the geopolitical landscape. This clandestine operation, including the establishment of a deep-sea military base at 6,000 meters beneath the ocean, has shifted power dynamics.

The revelation of these resources and military capabilities has prompted varied responses—some nations express defiance while others welcome a return to order based on international rules.

For the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei, the U.S. military bases safeguarding these critical deposits have provided a newfound strength against China's coercive tactics. They now have access to a market-driven source of rare earth elements.

The geopolitical game has transformed for countries governed by rule-of-law as well. There is uncertainty about whether similar deposits have been located in international waters near their economic zones and whether U.S. military bases exist in proximity to their national interests.

With the wealth inherent in these resources and the advanced technology associated with deep-sea operations, surface-level geopolitical calculations have changed. Questions arise: where else might these installations be located? What new avenues of influence could emerge? Why was this technology previously unknown?

The doctrine of containment, often implicit in Western diplomatic circles, has manifested in a surprising new form.

After church that weekend, Kapena and Tobias noticed a shift in the adults' conversations. There was a palpable sense of relief, lightness, and laughter among them. Some regular attendees were notably absent, which led the boys to speculate about their absence—wondering if they might be spies, perhaps representing Chinese interests. The adults' newfound optimism hinted at favorable developments from the Americans.

Eager to learn more, the boys couldn't wait to ask their teacher about the implications of the rare earth discoveries.

Chapter 2: The Geopolitical Landscape

This video delves into the significance of rare earth elements in the global market and explores the geopolitical tensions surrounding their supply.

In this video, discover how Tesla is revolutionizing the production of rare-earth-free permanent magnets and the engineering challenges involved in this innovative technology.