Chapter 1: Understanding Campi Flegrei

Recent research indicates that a volcanic eruption beneath Italy's Flegrei Fields is becoming increasingly probable. Should this occur, the fallout would be disastrous.

[Photo: George Woes JR, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons] Campi Flegrei translates to "burning fields," aptly describing this vast volcanic caldera. Unlike towering mountains like Vesuvius or Etna, the Phlegrean Fields present a deceptive calm, concealing a volatile threat below.

A caldera is essentially a large, circular depression that forms atop a volcano following an explosive eruption or when the volcanic cone collapses. Spanning approximately 13 kilometers in diameter, Campi Flegrei's landscape often misleads observers into thinking of serene Italian vistas rather than a dormant volcano. The town of Pozzuoli, home to around 80,000 residents, is situated within this caldera, which supports several hundred thousand people in total.

“Our latest study verifies that Campi Flegrei is on the brink of a potential eruption,” states Professor Christopher Kilburn from University College London. However, he warns, “This does not guarantee an eruption will happen.”

Section 1.1: The Nature of a Supervolcano

The Flegrei Fields are classified as a supervolcano, which is distinct from regular volcanoes in both size and structure. Supervolcanoes contain multiple vast, interconnected magma chambers located several kilometers beneath the surface. A significant increase in pressure within these chambers can lead to explosive eruptions.

Supervolcanoes are characterized by eruptions that have a Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) of 8, releasing up to 1,000 km³ of pyroclastic material into the atmosphere. The largest eruption recorded at Campi Flegrei, occurring 39,000 years ago, expelled about 285 km³ of material, resulting in a VEI of 7.

This eruption had far-reaching effects, blanketing much of Europe, northern Africa, and western Asia in ash. Sulfur dioxide released into the atmosphere formed sulfuric acid clouds that blocked sunlight, leading to a volcanic winter. Global temperatures dropped by 1–2 degrees Celsius, and in Europe, the decrease reached up to 4 degrees Celsius. This rapid cooling is thought to have contributed to the extinction of Neanderthals.

[Photo: yiftah-s, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons] Section 1.2: Recent Activity in the Flegrei Fields ----------------------------------------------------------------------

The last eruption of the Campi Flegrei volcano was in 1538. However, over the past seventy years, unusual activity has been recorded beneath the caldera. Periodic increases in volcanic activity were noted in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s, with thousands of minor earthquakes occurring—600 were registered in just April 2023. Additionally, ground uplift has been observed.

Scientists are closely monitoring Campi Flegrei to evaluate the likelihood of an eruption. They have developed a model to measure the Earth's crust's tensile strength, or its maximum stress tolerance before failure. Current findings suggest that the crust's tensile strength is now three times lower than it was in 1984 due to the accumulation of gases and magma beneath the surface.

This reduction means that a volcanic eruption could occur with less force than previously required, and there may be fewer warning signs leading up to such an event.

Chapter 2: The Uncertain Future of Campi Flegrei

The first video titled "Is Campi Flegrei about to Blow? ⚠️ Europe's Supervolcano" explores the current state of this supervolcano and the potential implications of an eruption.

The second video, "The Super Volcanic Eruption That Could Destroy Italy And Affect Most of Europe: Campi Flegrei," discusses the catastrophic impact such an eruption could have on Italy and beyond.

Though the outlook may seem grim, researchers emphasize that an eruption is not a certainty. For this to happen, gases must accumulate beneath the caldera more rapidly than they can escape to the surface. Even if an eruption were to occur, there must be established pathways for magma to travel from the depths of the volcano.

“We cannot definitively predict what will transpire,” states Stefano Carlino, a co-author of the study. “It’s possible that Campi Flegrei has entered a new cycle of rising and falling, or it may completely stabilize. Nonetheless, it’s crucial to be prepared for all eventualities,” he added.

The findings were shared in the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment.

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