The Rise of Ukraine's Military: Key Figures Behind the Transformation
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On February 24, 2014, a considerable number of unidentified armed individuals suddenly emerged on the Crimean Peninsula. Clad in green helmets and military uniforms devoid of any insignia, they became known globally as the "little green men." Subsequent revelations confirmed that these figures were Russian military personnel and pro-Russian forces.
These armed groups swiftly took control of crucial infrastructure, including transportation routes, government buildings, and broadcasting stations across the peninsula. At that time, Ukrainian forces were present but refrained from engaging in combat, allowing Russia to annex Crimea with relative ease.
The influence of these little green men extended beyond Crimea to the Donbass region, particularly in Luhansk and Donetsk, where pro-Russian militias quickly gained dominance. Although the Ukrainian military attempted to counter this, they faced significant losses and were compelled to sign the Minsk Agreement, effectively acknowledging the separation of these regions. Russia celebrated a notable victory, while Ukraine's military faced humiliation.
With this backdrop, eight years later, President Putin anticipated another swift defeat for the Ukrainian forces. The international community held little hope for Ukraine's chances. However, the performance of the Ukrainian military this time astonished observers; they not only withstood Russian assaults but also mounted counterattacks in certain areas. The conflict remains ongoing, with neither side achieving a decisive victory.
The crux of Ukraine's newfound military efficacy lies in the reconstruction efforts initiated after 2014, spearheaded by two pivotal figures. The first is Arsen Borisovich Avakov, who was born in Baku in 1964 into a military family. His family relocated to Ukraine when he was two, and he has since been entrenched in Ukrainian politics.
Avakov's political journey unfolded during the fractious post-Soviet landscape, where he positioned himself pragmatically, aligning with whichever side appeared victorious. His anti-Russian stance solidified following NATO's eastward expansion, and he played a significant role in the successful color revolution of 2004, which led to his appointment as head of the Kharkiv Regional Institute of Fair Administration.
Despite being sidelined under President Yanukovych, Avakov emerged as a key player following Yanukovych's ousting in 2014. As Crimea fell to Russian forces and unrest erupted in eastern Ukraine, Avakov recognized the urgent need for a robust military response. He initiated the re-establishment of the National Guard, which had been disbanded in 2000.
Avakov's strategy involved quickly recruiting 10,000 personnel, drawing from those who had participated in the color revolution, ensuring their loyalty and anti-Russian sentiments. The Ukrainian parliament allocated a budget of 600 million USD to this effort, and the National Guard began to take shape under the command of Stepan Poltorak.
Despite these efforts, the newly formed National Guard lacked immediate combat readiness, prompting Avakov to empower local militias to bolster the military presence. This strategy entailed granting military authority to local leaders in exchange for their allegiance to the central government, effectively curtailing pro-Russian influence in various regions.
An example of this was the support provided to the Azov Battalion and other militias by influential oligarchs, such as Komorowski, who were instrumental in combating pro-Russian forces outside Luhansk and Donetsk. By May 2014, over 50 militias were active across Ukraine, and Avakov worked to integrate these groups into a cohesive military structure.
Recognizing the potential risks associated with unchecked militias, Avakov sought to incorporate them under official command. Notably, the extremist group "Right Sector" faced pressure to conform, with Avakov allegedly resorting to extreme measures to ensure compliance.
Meanwhile, Stepan Poltorak, who had been appointed as the National Guard's commander, was recognized for his military expertise. Avakov advocated for his promotion to Minister of Defense, believing his experience in reorganizing the National Guard could be replicated within the broader Ukrainian military.
Upon taking office in October 2014, Poltorak was met with a military in disarray, suffering defeats, particularly in the disastrous battle of Debaltseve. Rather than rushing reforms, he took over a year to assess the situation before initiating changes in early 2016.
The first step involved reinstating a conscription system to address the manpower shortage caused by an over-reliance on contract soldiers. By implementing both systems, the Ukrainian army expanded its ranks to 250,000 personnel within a year. This restructuring also streamlined the Ministry of Defense, reducing overlapping agencies and enhancing operational efficiency.
Poltorak's reforms extended to the army's structure, drawing inspiration from American military models to establish specialized commands and standardize troop organization. The integration of new technologies, particularly drones, was also prioritized, positioning Ukraine to adapt to modern warfare dynamics.
In 2016, Poltorak's reforms began to bear fruit, significantly enhancing the combat capability of the Ukrainian army. As the military's effectiveness improved, regional tensions escalated, particularly within occupied areas of Donbass.
By January 2022, the situation for the Luhansk militia had deteriorated, with their territory significantly contracted. The Russian military's decision to intervene in Ukraine was, in part, a reaction to the mounting challenges faced by pro-Russian forces in the region.
However, the Russian leadership's miscalculation regarding the strength and resilience of the Ukrainian military would prove to be a critical error. Following two extensive rounds of reform, the Ukrainian forces emerged far more formidable than they had been eight years prior.