Chapter 1: The Rise of AI in Combat

In 2014, a foresighted individual voiced a warning on Twitter about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence. “We need to tread carefully, as robots are evolving to a point where they could be more hazardous than nuclear arms,” stated Elon Musk, who has consistently been ahead of his time. Fast forward to today, and we are witnessing the implications of that foresight.

Artificial intelligence is reshaping various aspects of our lives—ranging from employment to social media, commerce, and transportation. However, its most troubling influence is in warfare, where it is not enhancing conditions but exacerbating them.

In Ukraine, military forces are currently testing AI-powered drones to target enemy positions, marking just the beginning of a new chapter in conflict where automated systems may soon outmatch human capabilities in terms of lethality. AI technology can guide missiles towards targets, assess battlefield dynamics, and execute decisions in real-time.

Recent reports indicate that these AI drones have been actively involved in strikes against military sites in Donbass, a crucial region in eastern Ukraine. As Serhiy Popko, the commander of the Ukrainian army, noted, the integration of drones marks a “revolution in defensive strategies.” He expressed to the BBC, “The nature of warfare is changing dramatically. Military personnel must adapt to working alongside robotic systems, which they may not always fully comprehend.”

Ultimately, AI is transforming warfare into a more horrific and devastating reality. While many of us hold deep-seated fears about nuclear weapons, it is crucial to recognize the current levels of destruction resulting from the use of AI in combat.

Chapter 2: Advancements in AI Warfare Technology

The technological advancements in warfare are increasingly alarming, with autonomous weapons making decisions and utilizing sophisticated intelligence-gathering methods. Among these innovations is the Kub-Bla drone, designed for deployment from either the ground or aircraft, capable of reaching speeds of 130 km/h. It has been tested in the Syrian civil war and is now operational in Ukraine.

This lightweight drone, measuring 1.2 meters in wingspan, resembles a miniature fighter jet. Deployed from a portable launch platform, it can maintain peak velocity for half an hour before deliberately crashing into a target, carrying three kilograms of explosives. Zala Aero introduced the Kub-Bla at a 2019 air show, highlighting its real-time object detection and classification capabilities.

While the presence of such technology won't resolve the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, experts express concerns that AI will increasingly influence decisions leading to the loss of human lives.

The American Switchblade drone represents another significant advancement in military technology. This sophisticated weapon is designed to eliminate enemy targets and also serves surveillance purposes.

Chosen following a competitive selection process, the Switchblade is described by its manufacturer, AeroVironment, as a “small intelligent weapon capable of neutralizing live targets.” Unlike the Kub-Bla, the Switchblade is a ground-launched missile guided by real-time video feeds.

AeroVironment claims that this weapon, which can be deployed from moving military vehicles, features an intuitive user interface, operates within a range of ten kilometers, and carries up to five kilograms of explosives. Should the video signal be interrupted, the Switchblade is programmed to self-destruct. The company asserts it is the first weapon engineered to minimize collateral damage, with around 100 units sent to Ukraine.

The Turkish Kargu-2 drone, which made its combat debut in Libya in 2020, is another autonomous system. Marketed by STM as a self-driving combat drone, the Kargu-2 can be launched from stationary or mobile military units, flying for two and a half hours while carrying five kilograms of explosives. It is designed to operate in challenging conditions, showcasing a significant evolution in military operations.

Chapter 3: The Dangers of Smart Weapons

Drones currently deployed in Ukraine are typically operated via a laptop, powered by batteries, and guided by GPS. AI plays a crucial role in analyzing data collected from enemy positions and directing missiles—termed "smart darts"—to their targets. Essentially, these drones can make decisions independently, processing available data with remarkable speed and precision.

However, the question remains: Can these systems accurately differentiate between military and civilian targets? Both Ukrainian and Russian forces claim to have programmed their drones to engage only legitimate targets.

Nevertheless, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has raised alarms about the potential for catastrophic errors, stating, “If drones malfunction, the impact on civilians can be catastrophic and irreversible.” The ICRC further elaborated that using such weapons in densely populated areas increases the likelihood of civilian casualties.

Moreover, the ICRC has emphasized that those responsible for deploying these machines must be held accountable for any violations of international humanitarian law.

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